After
a terrible fall season and month after month of flat
or declining same store sales, Old Navy, Gap, Inc.'s
value brand, decided the time had come to address
the situation. "There was nothing compelling
about our product to make you drive to Old Navy,"
complained Sheryl Clark, Old Navy's EVP of merchandising,
in a recent Wall Street Journal article. When
Gap launched Old Navy in 1994, its mission to "bridge
the divide between discounters and specialty stores,"
was a novel concept with few competitors, and the
chain raked in $1 billion in sales in less than four
years. But as H&M, Kohl's, Target, and, more recently,
Wal-Mart have entered a similar arena with many of
the same styles and offerings, the value end of the
fashion retail spectrum that was once Old Navy's playground
has gotten kind of crowded. So Old Navy has set off
down the road frequented by many a retailer, making
the move upscale.
Speaking
of Wal-Mart, that chain's move into the world of upscale
has received more than its fair share of media attention.
With growth stagnating in 2004, Wal-Mart announced
its intentions to woo more upscale shoppers in 2005
and started rolling out pricier, higher-quality items
such as $50 400-thread count sheets, sponsored a fashion
show, advertised in Vogue, and made a bid to
buy fashonista Tommy Hilfiger's company. "Wal-Mart's
focus will always be on less-affluent shoppers, but
we need to widen our appeal to a broader range of
customer," Wal-Mart's president and CEO Lee Scott
told shareholders and employees a year ago this past
June. In 2006, Wal-Mart began offering, among other
things, trendier, higher quality clothing, top-shelf
wine and liquor, organic foods, and even a new store
concept complete with hardwood floors, a sushi bar,
and employees outfitted, not in the famous blue apron,
but polo shirts and khakis. "They have played
price," commented marketing professor David Bell
of the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School
on Wal-Mart's new strategy. "Now they want to
play quality and broaden their image."
This
is not an uncommon situationdepartment stores,
specialty retailers, grocery stores, restaurants all
struggle with encroaching competition and keeping
their offerings fresh to get and keep target customers
buying from them. And the not uncommon response when
competitors encroach and/or sales consistently suffer
is to appeal to a wider set of customers. McDonald's
offers upscale Newman's Own products, for instance,
and Whole Foods, the high-end grocer that bares the
nickname "Whole Paycheck," offers a value,
private label line called "365 Everyday Value."
For discount and middle-market retailers, this response
typically means offering higher priced, higher quality
(in theory anyways) merchandise in restyled stores
to higher income customers. With their ability to
buy more higher margin items, upper income consumers
would appear an attractive target. However, while
going upscale is an often tried response to stagnant
growth at the lower-end of the market, it hasn't always
proven true.
To
quote the Wall Street Journal:
J.C.
Penney Co., the quintessential middle-class merchant,
ran into trouble a decade ago when it turned to
pricier designer clothes and home furnishing that
alienated customers. Last holiday season, Limited
Brands Inc.'s Bath and Body Works unit suffered
slumping sales as it struggled to determine the
right mix of merchandise and promotions to convey
its shift upscale. And Pier 1 Imports Inc., the
home furnishing retailer, this year introduced sleeker
products to combat discount operators, but the changes
have yet to boost sales.
Add
to this list Kmart which tried to go upscale by offering
Martha Stewart, Kathy Ireland, and Jaclyn Smith lines
of housewares and clothing only to file for bankruptcy
and Zale Jewelers, "the self-proclaimed jeweler
to Middle America," that recently scrapped its
upscale strategy and dumped the CEO who suggested
it after a financially disastrous year. It's not to
say the move upscale is doomed to failureJ.
Crew's turnaround and recent successful IPO is a direct
result of going upscale, according to analysts anyways,
and Best Buy's bid for upscale customers with its
Magnolia store-within-a-store concept also appears
to have made a positive contribution to revenues.
But it's by no means a guaranteed cure-all to stagnant
growth.
One
problem is retailers often try to hedge their bets
when they move upscale, bringing in new higher income
buyers while maintaining their existing lower income
customer base. Who was it that said in business, you
can mean something to a few people, or nothing to
everyone? Old Navy has stood for trendy fashion at
reasonable prices, now it'll be trendy fashion at
reasonable and higher prices. Wal-Mart was "always
low prices," now it's "always low prices
on some things, higher prices on others, but still
a bit lower than the competition. And by the way,
we're more stylish." If most marketing efforts
are focused on appeals to the higher income set, lower
income loyalists might see the changes as a sign that
the company doesn't have anything to offer them any
more. Meanwhile the new wealthier target has a perception
of the company as lower end and wonders if it's really
changed. As author Laura Ries commented on the subject,
"you can't appeal to everybody. No brand can
stand for everything."
There's
also the issue of whether or not the move upscale
offers any competitive advantage. Xavier Dreze, another
Wharton marketing professor, says retailers need to
ask, "if they sell high-end [goods], is there
a competitive edge to that? Or will it make them just
another retailer? That's the risk." In an unscientific
poll of Old Navy shoppers in the office, most said
they made purchases at Old Navy because they liked
the lower prices. Yes, they knew the quality wasn't
as good, but they didn't expect the cute and more
trendier items they were purchasing would last foreverthey
weren't making an investment in a core wardrobe essential
like a suit. Upon hearing about the move upscale,
many echoed sentiments along these lines: "How
are they going to be any different than an Ann Taylor
Loft or some place like that?"
Why
not test the hypothesis that the prospects for growth
amongst an existing customer base are slim before
making a brand-altering decision such as the move
up-scale? Is there really nothing a retailer can do
to get its core group of lower income buyers to purchase
more higher margin items more often? Are higher income
customers really more profitable? Or might they be
so closed off to our brand that they aren't worth
trying to convert? As Laura Ries rightly points out,
"The notion that there are two types of customers,
low end and high end, is a fallacy. The same customers
will shop in different stores for different things
at different price points on different occasions."
To Ries' point, would better understanding the different
occasions for which customers visit stores help improve
merchandising, marketing, and therefore profitability?
And really, does segmenting the customer base based
on income, share of category business, and/or number
of shopping visits enable you to understand the unique
needs, wants, and problems of a particular group relative
to others and the most effective means to reach them?
So
many questions and, for most retailers, far too few
answers. Yet given the high probability of failure
with what in most cases appears to be a more or less
arbitrarily selected "go upscale" strategy,
they are questions worth answering.