| The
future of direct marketing has been much on the minds
of many practitioners since the widespread panic of anthrax
last fall led many consumers to toss all direct mail or
request it not be sent. We sat down with Boston University
professor and leading DM authority Paul Berger to get
his prognostications and advice for direct marketers.
Copernicus
Mzine: Do you think the anthrax scare changedfor
better or worsedirect marketing?
Berger:
There is evidence that it has not had a material
impact in the long run. In the same way that life for
the airline traveler is probably 80% "back to normal,"
at least with regard to what the public actually experiences,
likewise, the mail and post office communications/visitations/interactions
are nearly "back to normal"except, perhaps,
for a portion of the tiny fraction of a percent of post
office/postal districts directly affected by the anthrax
incidents. Folks are no longer even thinking about anthrax
as they receive/open their mail.
Copernicus
Mzine: In April, L. L. Bean announced that it
plans to reduce the number of its catalog titles from
its current total of 95. The company's CEO indicated
that the company's best customers received up to 80
catalogs in a 12-month period. How can companies like
L. L. Bean better manage the number and distribution
of its catalogs?
Berger:
A great deal of research and experimentation needs to
be done. While there has been fairly extensive research
on list segmentation, catalog layout, and some other
related issues, there has been very little meaningful
research on the frequency with which to send
out catalogs. Thus, our current state of knowledge can
do a decent job determining to whom to send (the
distribution), but not so well determining how many
to send (the number).
As
an aside, L. L. Bean is reacting the "typical way"
to a problematic economy. When the economy is good,
companies tend to focus on the "increase profit
by increasing revenue" side of the profit equation.
When the economy is in the doldrums, companies tend
to focus on the "increase [or maintain] profit
by reducing costs" side of the profit equation.
That this notion applies to a direct response marketing
operation may be another indication of direct response
becoming part of the "main stream."
Copernicus
Mzine: Do you foresee a day when we won't receive
catalogs in the mail any more? What do you think of
the newer direct techniques like email marketing and
wireless?
Berger:
If that time comes, it's a long way off! When Amazon.com
was in its "heyday," it was predicted that
brick and mortar bookstores would disappear in a decade.
That's clearly not happening. Indeed, brick and mortar
bookstores had their best 5-year period yet, and show
no sign of slowed growth. Email campaigns have had the
effect of increasing awareness, thereby increasing
overall category sales for most traditional
catalog products (as opposed to simply increasing sales
from one channel at the expense of another channel).
Look in stores today. They are very crowded, and, while
the majority of customers are computer/Internet-knowledgeable,
they are still visiting the store! There is still a
pleasure in shoppingtouching the merchandise,
seeing the colors live, having the social experience,
being "with people," having lunch out, etc.
There
is an increasing amount of research currently focused
on email marketing strategies. That's one of the many
indications of the future growth of wireless channels.
However, don't expect traditional channels to diminish
greatly in their importance in the near future.
Copernicus Mzine: How does relationship
marketing fit into the general framework of direct marketing?
Berger:
It is useful, if a little bit simplistic, to view direct
marketing strategies as falling into two general categoriesacquisition
marketing and retention marketing. Relationship marketing
can be thought of as another name for the latter category,
the maintaining and enhancing of customer relationships,
with the ultimate goal of increasing the lifetime value
of the individual customer. It is interesting to contrast
strategies and programs that essentially buy
loyalty (e.g., frequent traveler, shopper, or visitor
programs), versus strategies and programs that create
more lasting types of loyalty (e.g., superb customer
service and/or support).
Copernicus
Mzine: If you could offer one piece of direct
marketing advice to CEOs, what would it be?
Berger:
Start collecting data on your customers! Appreciate
the potential of direct response marketing, and realize
that, in addition to its unique ability to precisely
target and personalize, it's the measurable side of
marketing and has unlimited potential for establishing
long-term relationships with customers. It's very difficult
to target your customers to the fullest extent, if you
don't know who they are on an individual basis!
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